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Just two days prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – not just who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would triumph by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters leaned toward the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of ballots that came in after that and his lead dropped from 12% to 8%. It was concerning.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Additionally he boosted his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year went for Zohran now. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to surpass 50%. He has 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I hope he achieves it because then none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly was unexpected. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a high participation. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the property owners and residents all went for the independent. Thus there existed some opposition. However no, mostly the commie corridor is another huge reason why Mamdani prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but he did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York means politically? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest political leaders from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in America could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in America – since they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.