Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
