A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
