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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still