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Initially, the former US president appeared to embrace a strong approach concerning Ukraine. After making warnings of "serious repercussions" in August should Vladimir Putin continued obstructing peace discussions, he finally enacted considerable sanctions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously affected the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in the region.

However, with his newly presented detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, that was drafted by both nations' diplomats without Ukraine's or EU input, he has clearly gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Military Action

Trump's plan would essentially favor Putin for attacking a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Despite ringing declarations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", significant aspects of the plan actually weaken that same autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business background, the former president continues to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, implying handing Russia a section of Ukrainian territory will appease the president. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not simply about controlling a charred swath of industrial-devastated area in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to destroy it so it ceases to acts as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the accountable governance that his increasing authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Giveaways

While keeping in position the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would force the nation to abandon all of this eastern territory. In addition to benefiting Russia with area that its troops have been failed to seize in exceeding a lengthy period of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukrainian military defenses critically weakened.

The area is the location of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that are a essential barrier to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, providing Putin a unobstructed route to the capital if he eventually decide to restart the hostilities.

Defense Reductions

Additionally, in a move that would make additional conflict easier for Russia, the plan would mandate Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Importantly, the plan sets no similar constraints on the invading army.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine's legitimate administration as extremists, Trump's plan states: "All extremist ideology and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a truce. Meanwhile, Trump places no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

Certainly, the proposal makes Russia commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its policy of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However given that Putin has violated equivalent accords in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a return of captured land in the Donbas to Kyiv – how should the international community have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. While the plan threatens a "strong joint military response" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars vary from vague to troubling. The initiative would not only prevent the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit member states from positioning troops on the nation's land, effectively precluding the security presence, likely commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his weakened forces, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

An additional parallel deal reportedly would grant Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any future "significant, planned, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." That suggests a defense action. Yet unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would hinge on the dedication of Western powers, such as Trump, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, something they have {not